What if Russia doesn’t lose…

The West — politicians, pundits, and media — are mainly talking about Russia’s war on Ukraine in zero-sum terms. Either Russia will win, or Ukraine will win. If Russia loses the war it will be driven out of Ukraine. But we need to start thinking about what happens if Russia does not win but also does not lose. The war is at a turning point from where it could turn into a dreadful, protracted conflict that we may not be prepared for. The level of media coverage, political attention, and practical support the West is providing Ukraine will become hard to sustain if this war runs into months or years, rather than weeks.

I believe that whatever the military outcome, Putin has lost his war in Ukraine. He has strengthened Ukraine, made her president a global hero, and he’s undone all his hard work weakening both the European Union and NATO. Years of supporting the likes of Marine le Pen, Donald Trump, and the Brexiteers, both overtly and through social media campaigns, has been undone by this war. I’m sure that Ukraine will be fast-tracked into the European Union, just as Finland and Sweden will join NATO. He has guaranteed the survival and growth of Ukraine and NATO.

But however certain it is that Russia will lose this war in the long term, we may be naïve to think Russia will actually lose and end the war anytime soon. Putin’s initial plan for a short and quick invasion…